Explore the role of nature Essay Example for Free

Explore the role of nature Essay In the first three opening sections of Tess of the DUrbervilles, nature plays many a significant role. It acts as a storytelling device, helping the plot of the story to move and develop; it acts as a mirror for Tess feelings and the feelings of others; it adds atmosphere to the plot itself. Most importantly, it plays a major role in Tess wellbeing, but this role is often thwarted by the actions of man and the actions of mans Church the two are often in conflict, and these sections often explore this. We first see Tess taking part in an activity, clubwalking, with many of her friends and surrounding neighbours. All the people taking part are women, and it is a very simple activity; it is only them and the surrounding nature. This suggests that they share a harmony with their surroundings, and also that it is very feminine and pure, much like Tess at the beginning of the novel. As Tess emerges from this, we associate nature with her almost immediately. Angel also appears from this setting, with his two brothers, and he seems more connected with nature than he does with their religion. His brothers seem uptight and stuffy dancing with a troop of country hoydens! being an indication of this whilst he seems more carefree and willing to interact. In this way, Tess and Angel are instantly connected for the reader, and nature appears to shelter and protect them. However, Angel chooses another girl to dance with, marring the experience and implying that there is more to the situation; perhaps they are not so perfect. It implys that where nature creates a situation, man can often disrupt it, through their actions and religion. It therefore acts as a device for dramatic irony and foreshadows further events in the book. The death of the family horse, one of the more important contributors to Tess decision to work for the dUrbervilles, is caused by both nature and man. Tess falls asleep during her coach ride, and nature fails to keep her awake. It could be argued that it was enticing her to go to sleep, and therefore was a main conspirator against her. However, a man kills her horse (the morning mailcart had driven into her slow and unlighted equipage). The death of her horse is a combination of the two, and it seems as though nature is working with man to contribute to her ruin, although it may also be looked on as nature trying to protect her and, again, man disrupting it the two forces work against each other. Tess family had already raised the idea of her going to work for an old family (although Tess was against this when her younger brother questioned her on it she burst out never mind that now! ) but this new factor makes Tess think that she is responsible and must therefore help her family in their time of need. She has no choice in the matter; nature and fate, it seems has decided it for her she had hoped to become a teacher at the school, but the fates seemed to decide otherwise. It suggests that nature has carved out its own path for Tess. Due to the death of the horse, and at the persuasion of her family, Tess leaves for Trantridge. She plans to gain work from the DUrbervilles that live there. As readers, we are informed that they are not real DUrbervilles like Tess and her family; the father in the family, Simon Stoke, bought the name once he had made his money from being a merchant, in order to appear more grand to the rest of society they are not natural DUrbervilles, and Tess has been tricked. This is an example of man meddling with nature nature did not give them that name and they are therefore imposters. Trantridge itself, the house where the Stoke-DUrbevilles like, seems out of place with the surrounding nature; it is described as of recent erection of the rich red colour that formed such a contrast with the evergreens . It is far more modern and different from its surrounding and therefore appears almost sinister Nature did not intend for it to be there. Tess is assigned to work on the fancy farm belonging to the DUrbervilles. This small poultry farm seems unnecessary and frivolous, and is not needed in natures scheme it is merely the whim of man, much as Tess is for Alec in the novel. In this way, nature and its parts act as a mimic for the story. When Alec DUrberville first meets Tess, he immediately begins to seduce her. He feeds her strawberries one of natures most seductive fruits, due to its rich red colour and is riveted by the form that nature has given her. In this way, nature unwittingly works against Tess; by making her appear more of a woman than she already was, it has caused Alec to be immensely attracted to her. However, during the cart ride from her family home to his, when he has attempted to kiss her and she has dismounted under the pretences of saving her hat, he tries to use nature against her by hemming her in with his cart against the fence. She, however, uses nature to save her and talks to him from the top of the hedge into which she had scrambled nature assists her here. Just before Tess rape, the descriptions of wood are dark and unforgiving, with webs of vapour forming veils against the trees. Nature shows its darker side, and indicates what is about to happen. What happens to Tess, however, is a vital part of Nature perhaps nature assumes it is helping her in this way. It could be argued that nature here is working against Tess to set the next events in motion, or that nature is giving her a form of gift sex and pregnancy is widely regarded as natures highest privelege. Human religion and attitudes, however, view it as a sin. The Church is in conflict with natures ideas here that these acts are a vital part of life and therefore later outcasts Tess the slogans painted on the fences around Marlott such as the beginning of thou shalt not commit adultery emphasise this in our minds. Alecs attitude towards Tess after, when she leaves, suggest that he feels that it was Tess fault, for being so beautiful and irresistible to him; in reality, that is the fault of nature. Once she has left Alecs house, Tess feels she has discovered the true meaning of nature to her; the serpent hisses where the sweet bird sings. This phallic imagery shares a link to Troys sword in Far From the Madding Crowd, another popular book by Thomas Hardy for them both, nature leads them to men, men lead to their heartaches. To Tess, nature has exposed its dark underbelly and she feels robbed of natural beauty; what has happened to her, however, is a natural act, but in the eyes of man and the church, it is an unforgivable sin. This is empahasised in She had been made to break an accepted social law, but no law known to the environmet in which she fancied herself such an anomaly. When we meet Tess again, after a period of time has passed, we see her working in the local fields. The women working are described as assimilated with the fields nature wishes to protect them. However, when Tess works, she bleeds from the stubble on the corn; nature appears to be punishing her, or she punishes herself by working herself too hard. It is then revealed that Tess has a newborn baby, which is widely regarded as the greatest gift Nature offers. For Tess, and for man, however, this separates her from them she has sinned in their eyes; she still cannot resist pull of motherhood though, and her feelings for her baby are mixed and confused. Once she has decided she loves her child, nature takes it back when it dies from illness. The Church adds suffering for Tess when they refuse to bury it on concecrated ground; nature and the Church work together to upset Tess. Nature, at least, takes it from its suffering that it would have faced from mankind; the baby would never have been properly accepted. When Tess goes to work in Richard Cricks dairy, we see the idyllic side of nature once more. Here, nature mirrors Tess feelings and attitude there is a change in the quality of air from heavy to light, and we feel that the nature in the Valley of Great Dairies is far lighter and carefree for Tess; it will become her salvation for a time being, as nobody knows of her past here. She feels a connection with nature, and we have a sense that Tess is natures child she belongs to it far more than she does to mans Church. Nature saves her from herself, and the hard work with nature grants her peace. It also serves as an escape from Church, and has granted her this opportunity either as an apology or to set her up for more heartache. At the dairy, she is reunited with Angel Clare, a figure we havent seen since the opening chapters of the book. His description as a figure rising out of the past and a mobility of mouth with an unexpectedly firm close of the lower lip gives us an idea of his character nature has given him a look with compliments his personality. His mouth gives an indication that, although he is open to ideas, he can be unexpectedly firm in his ideals, a slightly chilling prediction of the events to come. Tess mouth, by contrast, is described firstly as a mobile peony mouth; like her, it is full and beautiful, and also everchanging. Nature presents Tess to Angel as a fresh and virginal daughter of Nature -although her past contradicts this ideal, Angel regards her image as perfect in every way. Nature could be seen as tricking him or trying to make amends and improve Tess life. However, with the latter, the Church seems to oppose these ideas, and this is the cause of her heartache mans inability to work with nature. In the romance of Angel Clare and Tess, nature tries to help them come together, with romantic settings such as a violet and pink dawn. There is the incident with the butter tasting like garlic, forcing Angel and Tess to work together on the mead, and the butter not churning properly (which, according to the dairyman, happens only when love is affecting it, although the story he tells is far more similar to that of Tess and Alec than that of Tess and Angel.) There is, too, the rising rain before church that seems to force them to come together, and although Angel has to carry Three Leahs to get one Rachel, he feels as though the trial was worth it for a moment with Tess. However, when they finally embrace while Tess is milking, the cow reacts unfavourably perhaps nature has realised what the consequences of its actions may be and is therefore trying to stop the romance. In this way, nature still tries to look out for Tess it is very much a mother figure to her.

Biblical canon Essay Example for Free

Biblical canon Essay What do Fee and Stuart say is the only proper control for hermeneutics?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| the original intent of the biblical text| * Question 2 0 out of 3 points According to Fee and Stuart, regarding literary context, the most important question you will ever ask is, Whats the point?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False| * Question 3 3 out of 3 points According to Fee and Stuart what do they say is the aim of a good interpretation?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| to get at the plain meaning of the text| * Question 4 3 out of 3 points According to Fee and Stuarts analysis they think most people do a very good job of handling Old Testament narrative passages. Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False| * Question 5 3 out of 3 points The Septuagint is a product of the Babylonian Exile.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True| * Question 6 3 out of 3 points Old Testament narrative normally does not directly teach a doctrine.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True| * Question 7 3 out of 3 points Until just after World War II the oldest OT manuscripts we had dated from about 200 B.C.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False| * Question 8 3 out of 3 points What is the first concern of translators?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| that the original text they are using is as close as possible to the original wording as when it left the authors hand| * Question 9 3 out of 3 points According to the text (Harbin) and the traditional/conservative view Moses wrote Genesis.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True| * Question 10 3 out of 3 points What three languages were the 66 books of the Protestant Bible originally written?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| Hebrew, Aramaic, Greek| * Question 11 3 out of 3 points The focus of the ___________ is on Jesus and his claim to be the Messiah.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| Gospels| * Question 12 0 out of 3 points The Modern View of the Bible approaches biblical documents as highly reliable.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True| * Question 13 3 out of 3 points What is the significance of the Dead Sea Scrolls?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| They gave us a much older collection of Old Testament manuscripts.| * Question 14 3 out of 3 points The two types of context Fee and Stuart discussed in this weeks reading were†¦Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| historical and literary| * Question 15 3 out of 3 points | The Traditional View of the Bible is also known as the liberal view.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False| * Question 16 3 out of 3 points Which of the following are not among the common causes people misinterpret biblical narratives mentioned in the text?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| projection * Question 17 0 out of 3 points In our readings this week the Bible is described in part as, the Word of God given in human words in history.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False * Question 18 3 out of 3 points  According to Fee and Stuart what is the antidote to bad interpretation?Answer | | | | | Selected Answer:| good interpretation, based upon commonsense guidelines| * Question 19 3 out of 3 points The NT canon was formalized at the 3rd Council of Carthage in AD397.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | True| * Question 20 3 out of 3 points  At the end of Old Testament narratives we are always told whether the events spoken of were good or bad. We are not expected to be able to judge for ourselves based upon other related portions of scripture.Answer | | | | | Selected Answer: | False

Economics Essays Petroleum Price Oil Economy

Economics Essays Petroleum Price Oil Economy Petroleum Price Oil and the Economy Summary The vulnerability of oil-importing countries to higher oil prices varies markedly depending on the degree to which they are net importers and the oil intensity of their economies. According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department. Euro-zone countries, which are highly dependent on oil imports, suffered the most in the short term, their GDP dropping by 0.5% and inflation rising by 0.5% in 2007. The United States suffered the least, with GDP falling by 0.3%, largely because indigenous production meets a bigger share of its oil needs. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4%, with its relatively low oil intensity compensating to some extent for its almost total dependence on imported oil. In all OECD regions, these losses should start to diminish in the following three years as global trade in non-oil goods and services recovers. This analysis assumes constant exchange rates. Oil prices impact the health of the world economy. Higher oil prices since 1999 – partly the result of OPEC supply-management policies – contributed to the global economic downturn in 2000-2001 and are dampening the current cyclical upturn. World GDP growth may have been at least half a percentage point higher in the last two or three years had prices remained at mid-2001 levels. Current fears of OPEC supply cuts, political tensions in Venezuela and tight stock prices have driven up international crude oil and product prices even further. The adverse economic impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing developing countries is generally even more severe than OECD countries. This is because their economies are more dependent on imported oil are more energy-intensive, and energy is used less efficiently. On average, oil-importing developing countries use more than twice the amount of oil to produce a unit of economic output as do OECD countries. Developing countries are also less able to weather the financial turmoil wrought by higher oil-import costs. India spent $15 billion, equivalent to 3% of its GDP, on oil imports in 2003. This is 16% higher than its 2001 oil-import bill. It is estimated that the loss of GDP averages 0.8% in Asia and 1.6% in very poor highly indebted countries in the year following. The loss of GDP in the Sub-Saharan African countries would be more than 3%. The impact of higher oil prices on economic growth in OPEC countries would depend on a variety of factors, particularly how the windfall revenues are spent. In the long term, however, OPEC oil revenues and GDP are likely to be lower, as higher prices would not fully compensate for lower production. In the IEA’s recent World Energy Investment Outlook, cumulative OPEC revenues are $400 billion lower over the period 2001-2030 under a Restricted Middle East Investment Scenario, in which policies to limit the growth in production in that region lead to on average 20% higher prices, compared to the Reference Scenario. Introduction This paper reviews how oil prices affect the macro-economy and assesses quantitatively the extent to which the economies of OECD and developing countries remain vulnerable to a sustained period of higher oil prices. It summarizes the findings of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department. That work, which made use of the large-scale economic models of all three organizations, constitutes the most up-to-date analysis of the impact of higher oil prices on the global economy. Oil prices have been creeping higher in recent months: the prices of Brent and WTI – the leading benchmark physical crude oils. These price increases and the possibility of further increases in the future have drawn attention again to the threat they pose to the global economy. The next section describes the general mechanism by which higher oil prices affect the global economy. This is followed by a quantitative assessment of the impact of a sustained rise in the oil price on, first, the OECD countries and then on the developing countries and transition economies. Finally the net effect on the global economy is summarized. Oil Price and the Global Economy Oil prices remain an important determinant of global economic performance. Overall, an oil-price increase leads to a transfer of income from importing to exporting countries through a shift in the terms of trade. The magnitude of the direct effect of a given price increase depends on the share of the cost of oil in national income, the degree of dependence on imported oil and the ability of end-users to reduce their consumption and switch away from oil. It also depends on the extent to which gas prices rise in response to an oil-price increase, the gas-intensity of the economy and the impact of higher prices on other forms of energy that compete with or, in the case of electricity, are generated from oil and gas. Naturally, the bigger the oil-price increase and the longer higher prices are sustained, the bigger the macroeconomic impact. For net oil-exporting countries, a price increase directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, though part of this gain would be later offset by losses from lower demand for exports generally due to the economic recession suffered by trading partners. Adjustment effects, which result from real wage, price and structural rigidities in the economy, add to the direct income effect. Higher oil prices lead to inflation increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand and lower investment in net oil importing countries. Tax revenues fall and the budget deficit increases, due to rigidities in government expenditure, which drives interest rates up. Because of resistance to real declines in wages, an oil price increase typically leads to upward pressure on nominal wage levels. Wage pressures together with reduced demand tend to lead to higher short term unemployment. These effects are greater the more abrupt and the more pronounced the price increase and are magnified by the impact of higher prices on consumer and business confidence. An oil-price increase also changes the balance of trade between countries and exchange rates. Net oil-importing countries normally experience deterioration in their balance of payments and putting downward pressure on exchange rates. As a result, imports become more expensive and exports less valuable, leading to a drop in real national income. Without a change in central bank and government monetary policies, the dollar may tend to rise as oil-producing countries’ demand for dollar-denominated international reserve assets grow. The economic and energy-policy response to a combination of higher inflation, higher unemployment, lower exchange rates and lower real output also affects the overall impact on the economy over the longer term. Government policy cannot eliminate the adverse impacts described above but it can minimize them. Similarly, inappropriate policies can worsen them. Overly contractionary monetary and fiscal policies to contain inflationary pressures could exacerbate the recessionary income and unemployment effects. On the other hand, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies may simply delay the fall in real income necessitated by the increase in oil prices, stoke up inflationary pressures and worsen the impact of higher prices in the long run. Impact on OECD Countries OECD countries remain vulnerable to oil-price increases, despite a drop in the region’s net oil imports and an even more marked decline in oil intensity since the first oil shock. Net imports fell by 14% while the amount of oil the OECD used to produce one dollar of real GDP halved between 1973 and 2006. Nonetheless, the region remains heavily dependent on imports to meet its oil needs, amounting to 56% in 2006. Only Canada, Denmark, Mexico, Norway and the United Kingdom are currently net exporting countries. Oil imports are estimated to have cost the region as a whole over $360 billion in 2006 – equivalent to around 1% of GDP. The annual import bill has increased by about 30 % since 2005. Higher oil prices have a significant adverse impact on OECD economic performance in the short term in this case, though their impact in the longer term is more limited (Table 1). The impact on the rate of GDP growth is felt mostly in the first two years as the deterioration in the terms of trade drives down income, which immediately undermines domestic consumption and investment. OECD GDP is 0.4% lower in 2005 and 2006 compared to the base case. In all OECD regions, these losses start to diminish in the following years as global trade in non-oil goods and services recovers. Throughout the whole five-year projection period, GDP is 0.3% lower on average. The impact of higher oil prices on the rate of inflation is more marked. The consumer price index is on average 0.5% higher than in the base case over the five year projection period. The impact on the rate of inflation was felt mostly in 2006 – the second year of higher prices. Recent trends show a clear correlation between oil price movements and short-term changes in the inflation rate. The economic impact of higher oil prices varies considerably across OECD countries, largely according to the degree to which they are net importers of oil. Euro-zone countries, which are highly dependent on oil imports, suffer most in the short term. GDP losses in both Europe and Japan would also exacerbate budget deficits, which are already large (close to 3% on average in the euro-zone and 7% in Japan). The United States suffers the least, largely because indigenous production still meets over 40% of its oil needs. The Impact on Developing Countries The adverse economic impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing developing countries is generally more pronounced than for OECD countries. The economic impact on the poorest and most indebted countries is most severe. On the basis of IMF estimates, the reduction in GDP would amount to more than 1.5% after one year in those countries. The Sub-Saharan African countries within this grouping, with more oil intensive and fragile economies, would suffer an even bigger loss of GDP, of more than 3%. As with OECD countries, dollar exchange rates are assumed to be the same as in the base case. Asia as a whole, which imports the bulk of its oil, would experience a 0.8% fall in economic output and a one percentage point deterioration in its current account balance (expressed as a share of GDP) one year after the price increase. Some countries would suffer much more: the Philippines would lose 1.6% of its GDP in the year following the price increase, and India 1%. China’s GDP would drop 0.8% and its current account surplus, which amounted to around $45 billion in 2006, would decline by $6 billion in the first year. Other Asian countries would see deterioration in their aggregate current account balance of more than $8 billion. Asia would also experience the largest increase in inflation in the first year, on the assumption that the increase in international oil price would be quickly passed through into domestic prices. The inflation rate in China and Thailand would increase by almost one percentage point in 2007. Latin America in general would suffer less from the increase in oil prices than Asia because net oil imports into the region are much smaller. Economic growth in Latin America would be reduced by only 0.2 percentage points. The GDP of transition economies and Africa in aggregate would increase by 0.2 percentage points, as they are net oil-exporting countries. The economies of oil-importing developing countries in Asia and Africa would suffer most from higher oil prices because their economies are more dependent on imported oil. In addition, energy-intensive manufacturing generally accounts for a larger share of their GDP and energy is used less efficiently. On average, oil importing developing countries use more than twice the oil to produce one unit of economic output as do developed countries. The IMF estimates suggest that, in the sustained oil-price increase case, the net trade balance of OPEC countries would improve initially by about $120 billion or around 13% of GDP, taking account of lower global economic growth. Venezuela would gain the least and Iraq and Nigeria the most, reflecting the relative importance of oil in the economy. The impact of higher oil prices on economic growth in OPEC countries would depend on a variety of factors, particularly how the windfall revenues are spent. In the long term, however, OPEC oil revenues and GDP are likely to be lower, as higher prices would not compensate fully for lower production. Higher oil prices in the last four years are in part the result of OPEC’s success in implementing its policy of collectively constraining production. This policy has led to a decline in OPEC’s share of world oil production from 40% in 1999 to 38% in 2003. There is a risk that this policy may be continued in the future, which would limit the extent to which OPEC producers, notably those in the Middle East, contribute to meeting rising world oil demand. According to the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook, OPEC’s market share is projected to rebound to 40% in 2010 and 54% in 2030. In the IEA’s recent World Energy Investment Outlook, cumulative OPEC revenues are $400 billion lower over the period 2001-2030 under a Restricted Middle East Investment Scenario, in which policies to limit the growth in production in that region lead to on average 20% higher prices, compared to the Reference Scenario. Impact on the Global Economy The results of the sustained higher oil price simulation for both the OECD and non- OECD countries suggest that, as has always been the case in the past, the net effect on the global economy would be negative. That is, the economic stimulus provided by higher oil and gas export earnings in OPEC and other exporting countries would be outweighed by the depressive effect of higher prices on economic activity in the importing countries, at least in the first year or two following the price rise. Combining the results of all world regions yields a net fall of around 0.5% in global GDP – equivalent to $ 255 billion in the first year of higher prices. The loss of GDP would diminish somewhat by 2008 as increased demand from oil-exporting countries boosts the exports and GDP of oil-importing countries. The main determinant of the size of the initial net loss of global GDP is how OPEC and other oil-exporting countries spend their windfall oil revenues. The greater the marginal propensity of oil-producing countries to save those revenues, the greater the initial loss of GDP. Both the IMF and OECD simulations assume that oil exporters would spend around 75% of their additional revenues on imported goods and services within three years, which is in line with historical averages. However, this assumption may be too high, given the current state of fiscal balances and external reserves in many oil-exporting countries. In practice, those countries might take advantage of a sharp price increase now to rebuild reserves and reduce foreign and domestic debt. In this case, the adverse impact of higher prices on global economic growth would be more severe. Higher oil prices, by affecting economic activity, corporate earnings and inflation, would also have major implications for financial markets – notably equity values, exchange rates and government financing – even, as assumed here, if there are no changes in monetary policies: International capital market valuations of equity and debt in oil-importing countries would be revised downwards and those in oil-exporting countries upwards. To the extent that the creditworthiness of some importing countries that are already running large current account deficits is called into question, there would be upward pressure on interest rates. Tighter monetary policies to contain inflation would add to this pressure. Currencies would adjust to changes in trade balances. Higher oil prices would lead to a rise in the value of the US dollar, to the extent that oil exporters invest part of their windfall earnings in US dollar dominated assets and that transactions demand for dollars, in which oil is priced, increases. A stronger dollar would raise the cost of servicing the external debt of oil-importing developing countries, as that debt is usually denominated in dollars, exacerbating the economic damage caused by higher oil prices. It would also amplify the impact of higher oil prices in pushing up the oil-import bill at least in the short-term, given the relatively low price-elasticity of oil demand. Past oil shocks provoked debt-management crisis in many developing countries. Fiscal imbalances in oil-importing countries caused by lower income would be exacerbated in those developing countries, like India and Indonesia that continue to provide direct subsidies on oil products to protect poor households and domestic industry. The burden of subsidies tends to grow as international prices rise, adding to the pressure on government budgets and increasing political and social tensions. It is important to bear in mind the limitations of the simulations reported on above. In particular, the results do not take into account the secondary effects of higher oil prices on consumer and business confidence or possible changes in fiscal and monetary policies. The loss of business and consumer confidence resulting from an oil shock could lead to significant shifts in levels and patterns of investment, savings and spending. A loss of confidence and inappropriate policy responses, especially in the oil-importing countries, could amplify the economic effects in the medium term. In addition, neither the OECD’s estimates for member countries nor the IMF’s estimates for the developing countries and transition economies take explicit account of the direct impact of higher oil prices on natural gas prices and the secondary impact on electricity prices, other than through the general rate of inflation. Higher oil prices would undoubtedly drive up the prices of other fuels, magnifying the overall macroeconomic impact. Rising gas use worldwide will increase this impact. Nor does this analysis take into account the macroeconomic damage caused by more volatile oil prices. Short-term price volatility, which has worsened in recent years, complicates economic management and reduces the efficiency of capital allocation. Despite these factors, the results of the analysis presented here give an order-of-magnitude indication of the likely minimum economic repercussions of a sustained period of higher oil prices. Conclusion Oil prices remain a significant macroeconomic variable. Higher prices can still inflict substantial damage on the economies of oil-importing countries and on the global economy as a whole. The surge in prices in 1999-2000 contributed to the slowdown in global economic activity, international trade and investment in 2000- 2001. The disappointing pace of recovery since then is at least partly due to rising oil prices: according to the modeling results, global GDP growth may have been at least half a percentage point higher in the last two or three years had prices remained at mid-2001 levels. The results of the simulations presented in this paper suggest that further increases in oil prices sustained over the medium term would undermine significantly the prospects for continued global economic recovery. Oil importing developing countries would generally suffer the most as their economies are more oil-intensive and less able to weather the financial turmoil wrought by higher oil-import costs. The general economic background to the current run-up in prices is significantly different to previous oil-price shocks, all of which coincided with an economic boom when economies were already overheating. Prices are now rising in a situation of tentative economic revival, excess capacity and low inflation. Firms are less able to pass through higher energy-input costs in higher prices of goods and services because of strong competition in wholesale and retail markets. As a result, higher oil prices have so far eroded profits more than they have pushed up inflation. The consumer price index growth has fallen in almost every OECD country in the past year, from 2.3% to 2.0% in the Euro zone and 2.4% to 1.9% in the United States in the 12 months to December 2003. Deflation in Japan has worsened from -0.3% to 0.4% over the same period. A weaker dollar since 2002 has also offset partly the impact of higher oil prices in many countries, especially in the euro-zone and Japan. The squeeze on profits delayed the recovery in business investment and employment, which began in earnest in 2003 in many parts of the world. In contrast to previous oil shocks, the financial authorities in many countries have so far been able to hold down interest rates without risking an inflationary spiral. Yet the economic threats posed by higher oil prices remain real. Fears of OPEC supply cuts, political tensions in Venezuela and tight stocks have recently driven up international crude oil and product prices even further. Current market conditions are more unstable than normal, in part because of geopolitical uncertainties and because tight product markets – notably for gasoline in the United States – are reinforcing upward pressures on crude prices. The hike of futures prices during the past several months implies that recent oil price rises could be sustained. If that is the case, the macroeconomic consequences for importing countries could be painful, especially in view of the severe budget-deficit problems being experienced in all OECD regions and stubbornly high levels of unemployment in many countries. Fiscal imbalances would worsen, pressure to raise interest rates would grow and the current revival in business and consumer confidence would be cut short, threatening the durability of the current cyclical economic upturn. References Eichengreen, B., Y. Rhee and H. Tong (2004), â€Å"The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries,† NBER Working Paper no.10768 (September). Frankel, J. and D. (1999), â€Å"Does Trade Cause Growth?† American Economic Review 89, pp. 379-399. Grubert, H. and J. Mutti (1991), â€Å"Taxes, Tariffs and Transfer Pricing in Multinational Corporate Decision-Making,† Review of Economics and Statistics 73, pp.285-293. Ianchovichina, E. and W. Martin (2005), â€Å"Trade Impacts of China’s WTO Accession,† this volume. Lian, D. (2005), â€Å"Singapore’s Lessons for China,† Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum (5 May), np. Mody, A., A. Razin and E. Sadka (2002), â€Å"The Role of Information in Driving FDI: Theory and Evidence,† NBER Working Paper no. 9255 (October). Ravenhill, J. (2005), â€Å"Why the East Asian Auto Industry is not Regional,† unpublished manuscript, Australian National University.

terror :: essays research papers

1.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There are many definitions of terrorism. Some of them are: Brain Jenkins said that terrorism is the use or threatened use of force designed to bring about political change. While Walter Lacqueur said that terrorism constitutes the illegitimate use of force to achieve apolitical objective by targeting innocent people. Yet another definition comes from Edward Herman, who said that terrorism should be defined by terms of state repression, such as the corrupt Latin American governments. Still another view of terrorism comes from Alex Schmidt, who said that there is no true or correct definition, because terrorism is an abstract concept with no real presence. A single definition cannot possibly account for all potential uses of the term. The final definition that is covered here is the official definition of terrorism issued by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. They state that it is the unlawful use of force to intimidate a government to further political or socia l goals. Though these are only a few of the definitions of terrorism, they provide a good cross-section of the term terrorism. 2.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Martha Crenshaw said that terrorism means socially and politically unacceptable violence aimed at an innocent target to achieve a psychological effect. She also sited three criteria to make it a terrorist attack. The first is that there must be military methods used. Second there must be a millitary target involved, and finally there must be some chance of victory. 3.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  J. Bowyer Bell stated that there are six types of terrorism, and each part has a purpose. The six are; psychotic which attempts to achieve psychological gratification. The second is criminal witch attempts to profit the terrorist. Next there is the vigilantly type of terrorism witch attempts to achieve retaliation for some act, fourth there is endemic terrorism; witch is an internal struggle of some type. The fifth type of terrorism is authorized terrorism, which deals with state repression of a group. Finally we have revolutionary terrorism, which changes a behavior through fear. 4.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  One of the many types of terrorism, according to Bell, is revolutionary terrorism. Here are some of the forms of revolutionary terrorism. One form is organizational which is meant to maintain discipline in a terrorist group. The next is allegiance which attempts to achieve public support for a given terror group. Thirdly there is functional revolutionary terrorism, which attempts to accomplish the missions of the terror groups. Another form is the proactive type, which incites governments to repression of a group of people.

Global savings Essay -- essays research papers

Question 1: (i) Briefly, what is the issue? What impact does it have on different regions’ GDP, prices, exchange rates and Interest rates? The issue is an unprecedented level of world surplus savings (especially in the Asian economies) that faced with weak investment opportunities serve to fund a growing US current account deficit which creates dangerous world imbalances. The Euro-zone and Japan have slow GDP growth and their savings increase due to a lack of confidence in both financial and social security systems as well as the inability of the private sector to find investments. Also we see increasing fiscal deficits, very low real interest rates and low inflation. The Euro appreciated vs. USD, creating loss of export competitiveness that added up to a weak demand. The yen has been down in real terms (to avoid deflation). Therefore, most of the countries (specially Asia and specifically China) are using this surplus to lend money to the US, thus making the US both borrower and spender of last resort (to finance mainly US consumption, its current account deficit and to some extent its fiscal deficit). Furthermore, any FDIs from Europe and the US into developing Asian economies are recycled (although the Asian countries keep the technology) into Asian Central Banks’ purchase of US Treasuries. The banks also use this as a mechanism to maintain export competitiveness by fixing their currency against the USD, which increases their foreign reserve accumulations. Tight monetary and fiscal policies as well as direct interventions in credit markets have helped to sustain this high domestic savings. China’s economic growth rate is 9%, due to: increasing exports & spending in capital goods and construction; very low interest rates; increasing (but still low) inflation and real exchange rate depreciation. (ii) Why does it put the world economy at high risk? What is the worst possible outcome? The US current account deficit has increased to 6.5% of GDP, because of low and falling savings as well as private spending rising faster than disposable income. The US net external liabilities have also increased to levels that had never been seen before. Thus, in order to achieve a growth of output in line with full employment, US domestic demand needs to grow more than GDP (since imports grow also 6% more than exports). Therefore the US has increased its current ac... ...sp;  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Depreciation of the dollar: necessary but not sufficient. 2.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Decrease US fiscal deficit: i.e. increasing taxes and decreasing government expenditure. Increase in domestic savings (for instance by increasing interest rates) is paramount. Increase exports would also be of help. 3.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Expansionary policies in Asia: decrease their excess savings and stimulate domestic spending (through structural reforms in financial system) and favor internal lending. 4.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Allow a real exchange rate appreciation of Asian currencies: a new competitiveness policy would have to be based in productivity than current exchange rate intervention. 5.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Euro-zone should create new investment opportunities: structural reforms like social security, labor legislation, tax system, public sector services and enterprises, should allow the creation of new investment opportunities in Europe. Also EUR would appreciate vs USD, causing exports to US to reduce; but a depreciation against Asian currencies could be a gain in competitiveness for export oriented countries such as Germany.

Benito Mussolini: A Destined Failure Essay -- Italian History, Politic

Absolute power and influence, is and has always been something extremely difficult to obtain, and as we have seen throughout the course of history such authority and control left in the hands of a single person can quickly crumble at their very feet. As with most, this often happens in part by self-destructive means. Case and point, Benito Mussolini, a man who at one point held total power over the entire Italian population; seemingly overnight he lost all control and eventually found himself hanging from the end of a meat hook. Now knowing just who he was as a person, what actions he took, and the decisions he made, some might argue that his reign in the end was preordained for catastrophe. Myself, I would tend to agree with this statement. Nevertheless, let us take a few steps back and revisit the periods of Mussolini’s life leading up to his ultimate demise. The stages of his life in which he was influenced by loved ones and strangers alike. In essence, the moments in time that sculpted the intellect, opinions, beliefs, even ideologies of the man who was. Starting from the beginning and working forward, I want to dissect Mussolini in a way that helps us understand why and how he was shaped into the person he became. How was Mussolini influenced by his father and mother? What drove Mussolini to eventually create and promote Fascism as we know it? Then, with a freshly painted portrait of the man we knew as â€Å"Il Duce†, we can pinpoint the flaws of his being to see what went wrong in, or rather how Mussolini went about, implementing the fascist idea incorrectly. Moreover, with these questions in mind we can evaluate my perceived notion that Mussolini was simply destined for failure. Benito Mussolini was born the son of a blacksmit... ...ists) (Gregor 95). This was the first step of many that would take Mussolini’s small, organized group of followers and himself to their futures as ruling fascists. Once more Mussolini completely reinvented himself and his ideology in the years to come. On March 23, 1919, Mussolini founded the Fasci Italiani di Combattimento, welcoming civilians and veterans alike in the fight for Fascism (Hoyt 113). Fascism in its’ early state spread under the values of nationalism and unity, despite ones class. However, Mussolini’s idea of fascism was not what it turned out to be. He took philosophies and ideologies alike and blended them to his approval. Mussolini’s fascism opposed democratic rule, protected the class system, rejected egalitarianism, encouraged militarization, and demanded civic duties for the states wellbeing; fascism was action and with action came results.

Introduction To Poetry

Introduction To Poetry October 21, 2013 A relationship between two lovers is a bond that when broken, can be hard to get over. It's hard to undo feelings for someone whom youVe built so much trust and compassion with. It takes a strong person to forgive someone who has stopped loving you when you still love him or her. And even then, it takes a stronger person to see that ex-lover and be able to talk to them in a civil and friendly manner. Women tend to find it harder to do this than men due to the feelings and trust that they put into men, who are already viewed as Jerks that only care about them.Carolyn Kizer, author of â€Å"Bitch,† is Just like those women and shows anger toward her ex-lover. She shows her maturity and strength and doesn't allow him to spark a reaction that shows she wants him back. This is the first time that Kizer is meeting with her old lover in some time. It is clear that it has been a while because she says, ‘after all these years† (1). As the conversation continues, we see more reasons that it has been a number of years since they have seen each other.She starts off the greeting with a simple hello and then asks, â€Å"How are the children? They must be growing up† (9). This shows that they have been broken up long enough for him to have more than one child. Also, she says, â€Å"they must be growing up† (9), so they must be getting big and are more than a few years old. Another sign they haven't seen each other in a while is when she says, â€Å"It's nice to know you are doing so well† (28). This is something someone would only say if they haven't seen or heard from someone in some time, but is happy to have seen them.Kizer also knows he isn't hurting her anymore so there's no reason to be hostile toward him, but the bitch inside her doesn't feel the same way. The bitch inside her wants to call him out and yell at him because of the pain that he put her through, but she tries to quiet that bitc h and says, â€Å"don't start growling† (2). While still fighting the bitch inside her, she says, â€Å"nice to see you† (5), as the bitch begins to â€Å"bark hysterically' (6). The barking is her inner anger building, but she continues to fght it, asking herself â€Å"where are your manners† (8).She doesn't want the inner bitch to ruin a friendly conversation between her and her old companion. He says something nice to her after she asks about the children and she sees a familiar situation. Finally she has broken the anger barrier and her inner bitch â€Å"begins to whimper† (11) and Just wants to snuggle up with the man she used to love so much. â€Å"He isn't an enemy now' (7) realizes the bitch. There's no reason for her to live in the past and make herself feel worse anymore. They have both moved on, but she has to keep the bitch away from him saying â€Å"down, girl!Keep your distance† (13) or she'll have to punish her for trying to bring old feelings back to life. As â€Å"she slobbers and grovels,† (16) she subsides and takes control of her â€Å"basically loyal† (17) self. Obviously her self is supposed to be loyal to her. As her inner self tarts to sit on the sideline during the conversation, she begins to reminisce. She remembers how she would run toward his comfort whenever â€Å"she heard his step† (19). When he was too busy for her loving devotion, he would send â€Å"her to the c en† (22).Kizer didn't get the tull attection that sne wanted, and yet it was the â€Å"small careless kindnesses† (24) that she adored so much. The good days that he had or if he had a few drinks are the days that were more important to her than â€Å"the casual cruelties† (27). She enjoyed the times when they were nice to each other and cared for each other, although they seemed to be short in number. It's nice to know you are doing so well† (28), shows that she still cared for him li ke anyone would care for a friend.Kizer tells the bitch â€Å"he couldn't have taken you with him† (29), because he cared too much and was â€Å"too clumsy' (30) unlike his new wife and kids. She was too attached to him and was clingy, but now in his new life he has a wife and kids that love him but give him his space when he needs it. He has a new life where he is comfortable, happy and shares it with the ones he loves. As those few minutes of catching up comes to an end, she asks him to â€Å"Give [her} regards to [his] wife† (32). They begin to part as they say their goodbyes.Trying not to trip up and release any emotion, Kizer ends their conversation with â€Å"Nice to have seen you again† (34). It is tough for someone to tell an ex-lover to say hello, or give his or her regards to their wife. No one wants to see someone they used to love and share a life together with enjoying life with someone else. But not all relationships are meant to last. A true rela tionship will come in time, so it is better not to dwell on what could have been and look forward to what could be. So, Kizer's poem shows how we should be able to turn an old, close partner to a friend.